Thursday 1st May 2008, 8:22 PM, Sydney, Australia
“Share fall stuns Indian investors” appeared on the BBC International site at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7305364.stm on March 20th, 2008.
Investors in India may soon be far more than merely “stunned”.
The eerie similarity of their Bombay BSE Sesex Index now and Japan’s Osaka Nikkei 225 in 1989/90 should be sounding alarm bells among chart-reading Indians, or at the very least, tinkling a sound of caution.
Check out the BSE SESEX (Bombay) index at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
and the NIKKEI 225 (Osaka) at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The astounding rise in the Bombay Index from late 2002 till the end of 2007 mirrors the astounding rise in the Nikkei 225 from 1984 to 1990.
The correction in the Bombay from the start of 2008 till now again mirrors the correction in the Nikkei that occurred in the first half of 1990. Of course, that initial correction in the Nikkei was merely the opening downward blast in one of history’s great bear markets.
Will the Sesex repeat the Nikkei’s unhappy performance? Possibly. Perhaps it’s time to err on the side of caution.
The great thinker Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871 – 1948), father of Elliott Wave Theory, provided chartists with an additional tool for interpreting market action. When one applies Elliott’s Wave Principle to the Sesex and Nikkei indexes one is at least left wondering: is Japanese market history about to be repeated in India?
J. L. Donoghue
“Share fall stuns Indian investors” appeared on the BBC International site at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7305364.stm on March 20th, 2008.
Investors in India may soon be far more than merely “stunned”.
The eerie similarity of their Bombay BSE Sesex Index now and Japan’s Osaka Nikkei 225 in 1989/90 should be sounding alarm bells among chart-reading Indians, or at the very least, tinkling a sound of caution.
Check out the BSE SESEX (Bombay) index at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
and the NIKKEI 225 (Osaka) at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The astounding rise in the Bombay Index from late 2002 till the end of 2007 mirrors the astounding rise in the Nikkei 225 from 1984 to 1990.
The correction in the Bombay from the start of 2008 till now again mirrors the correction in the Nikkei that occurred in the first half of 1990. Of course, that initial correction in the Nikkei was merely the opening downward blast in one of history’s great bear markets.
Will the Sesex repeat the Nikkei’s unhappy performance? Possibly. Perhaps it’s time to err on the side of caution.
The great thinker Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871 – 1948), father of Elliott Wave Theory, provided chartists with an additional tool for interpreting market action. When one applies Elliott’s Wave Principle to the Sesex and Nikkei indexes one is at least left wondering: is Japanese market history about to be repeated in India?
J. L. Donoghue
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