Pining for the Bull … by shooting it

Tuesday 6th May 2008, 9:45 PM, Sydney, Australia

Don’t mention there’s a grizzly in the room. It might frighten people and cause a panic.

A number of optimistic headlines have been appearing in the Aussie press. I was browsing through a couple of them on the weekend.

I suppose there is not much profit in newspaper vendors selling financial doom and gloom. Much better for their bottom lines to put a happy face on their wares, a positive spin on their words.

Some of the headlines:

From the Sydney Morning Herald, Weekend Edition, May 3-4, 2008:

“Volatility may be coming to and end”

“Crisis, what crisis? Optimism is back”

And from the Business Section of The Weekend Australian:

“Much ado about nothing: the most serious financial crisis since the 30s appears to be over”

Anyone who has survived a bear attack or two will recognize that the current upmove in many global markets is quite likely to be a classic bear market rally, a bear trap. Of course, one ought to be mindful of the fact that anyone who attempts to forecast the future course of market activity is in danger of having to eat humble pie, to go around for awhile with egg on the face, and so on.

Pollyannas apart, we are into earthquake territory. The current bear market rally is most likely but the eye of the storm. I believe there are many storms and many eyes to come. It is the sudden periods of calm that will be most treacherous, tempting many onto dangerous ground.

J.L. Donoghue

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