Stockholm warnings. A scary index indeed.

If ever there was a scary index it is the OMXS ALL SHARE INDX (Stockholm). I do not wish to violate anyone's copyright material, so here's the link to the two year chart at Yahoo! Finance which I use constantly and am ever thankful for: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EOMXSPI&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Note the top of the index in approx July, 2007. Then the painful "slope of hope", as Robert Prechter would call it, begins. This chart is classic Elliott Wave Principle in action, and to understand this vital tool (Elliott Wave Principle) which assists in interpreting and understanding market volatility and action – and, most importantly, possible if not likely, direction - tune in to the chief apostles of Ralph Nelson Elliott at http://elliottwave.com/

There has been a major downward thrust in progress in this Stockholm index from its top in July, 2007. Thus far, the downward thrust has unfolded in a classic Elliott wave pattern of 5 waves down from the top in July, 2007 to the bottom in mid Jan 2008. Commencing from that point is an A-B-C (up-down-up) compensating upward correction ending in about mid May 2008.

The renewed downward thrust beginning in about mid May 2008 carries a foreboding message. The downward thrust, as you can see, ended in about mid July 2008. The upward compensating reaction revealed itself in a 3 wave pattern (up-down-up), ending recently in this month, August 2008. Elliott Wave at least offers a basic understanding of what will most likely follow - and it's bad news. Unless you are a short sport, of course.

Looking at the Yahoo max chart for this index at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EOMXSPI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= you can see a major head and shoulders pattern. The Left Shoulder took the first half of 2006 to build. Top of the Head occurred at about mid 2007. Top of Right Shoulder was in place at mid May 2008. If you are having difficulty seeing this pattern then get a copy of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee.

The Bear Market shovel digs even deeper into this open grave when you look at the 200 Day Moving Average at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EOMXSPI&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=

For a deeper appreciation of the importance of moving averages a good book is Stan Weinstein’s Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.

They do say fortune favours the brave. Well, the very best of Irish Luck to you if you are long. I myself am out of the market. Cash is not such a bad place to be during these troubling times.

James Leo Donoghue
Sydney, Australia

Comments