Click on chart for larger image
Tin closed on Monday 8th August 2011 at $23,775.00 per tonne, which is the latest data available for my download this evening of Wednesday 10th August 2011 .
The Head and Shoulder measurement formula (vertical red lines on chart) suggests a minimum price drop of $7,901.00 per tonne to a target price of $15,874.00 per tonne over the next several weeks, possibly months. The plunge might take a year or more to eventuate. However, in the volatile times we are living through I wouldn’t bet on it. I would not like to be long tin.
The $15,874 level is a minimum expectation for this commodity. If tin visits this price region I would expect:
(1) a few minor relief bear market rallies on its way down
(2) a fairly major countertrend rally once it arrives in the region of $15,874.00
(3) then a continuation down after the fairly major countertrend rally, but more on this point if and when this forecast proves itself.
As I always emphasize: Technical Analysis is a fascinating subject, but never forget it makes for probabilistic forecasting; the crystal ball is too often cloudy.
A clear Head and Shoulder pattern such as the one depicted in the above chart deserves attention. Why? Have a look at my previous posts:
FTSE 100, Global Pain, More to Come.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Bull’s-eye forecast for London’s FTSE 100 IndexBull’s-eye forecast for The Paris Bourse CAC 40 Index
Good luck to all with tin or with any other market, long, short or out.
NOTE: We no longer offer forecasts for sale.
James Leo Donoghue
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